Kavian - TD

Transition to Democracy for Iran — Part V

The Transition Process

Is the Iranian opposition ready for regime change and does it have the ability to carry it out?

We want to establish a fair and just system of social cooperation in order to provide the foundations for all citizens to have a chance at a high quality of life. Achieving such an objective requires a framework of laws and the establishment of social and political institutions (governmental and non-governmental), which will protect the rights and freedoms of the population, as well as a government that represents the people and sees itself as responsible for them. Only such foundations can guarantee in the long-term that people will be able to justly enjoy the fruits of their effort. A continuous and long-term development of the economy, society and politics is necessary. The current best knowledge of humanity is that an institutionalized democracy provides the best political system for such developments.

An important and essential point here is that a stable and efficient democracy cannot be achieved overnight. Every country that has achieved democracy by itself, has done it with a transition process. The US, France, Britain, South Korea, South Africa, most Eastern European countries and Indonesia. all went through several periods of changes and their ruling systems transitioned from autocratic rule to democratic rule. In order to protect the democratic values of a governing system, governmental and non-governmental institutions need to be established and developed. These institutions are run by people.

If we want institutions in Iran to be able to protect Iran’s future democracy and the people’s freedoms, then the people running these institutions and working for or with them, should themselves understand and respect these democratic values. This requires not only political education of politicians and the general public, but also the development of a culture of respect and solidarity, in which laws (devised by the true representatives of the people) are accepted and followed. Such a political education is a major task of political parties.

For a democratic system to function properly, it also needs stable and enduring economic foundations. A sustainable, fair and stable economy for a large and populous country cannot be developed overnight, especially as the IR regime has neglected all sectors of the economy and their infrastructures. Advancing the Iranian economy needs technical and technological progress, scientific and entrepreneurial education of workers, free trade, long term investments, sustainable and circular use of resources, secure energy and fuel networks as well as reliable transportation systems. Such an economic development is in turn only possible, if a political system consisting of political institutions and social capacities for it exist. This is why Iran has been facing an ongoing and detrimental economic crisis for years now. In the past 40+ years the Iranian economy has been quite literally ruined by wrong development strategies, false economic policies and international sanctions.

The Phases of Our Struggle

For the case of Iran, we can consider the general process of transition to democracy to have three main phases.

Before the Regime Change: Currently, Iranians are working to dissolve the IR regime. A parliamentary system for Iranians in exile (PiE) must be established. The PiE creates a polity, develops a strategy, finds means of funding for the revolution, and represents Iranians to the outside world. Forced structural reforms start increasing the pressure on the regime, which has no other solution but to react. In order to ensure the continuation of social, financial and technical services for the population (electricity, water, banking, police) and to avoid suffering, unrest and violence, it is necessary to develop the capacity to take over the political power immediately, should the regime dissolve.
The Transition Period: The structural reforms introduce democratic elements into the IR regime, e.g. Majles representatives, who are not servants of the oil-mafia. The forced structural changes will in time lead to dissolving the main power structure of the regime, including the supreme leader position and the transition period starts. This would be the task of an interim government, which is not voted directly into power by all Iranians in a fair and free election (as a voting within Iran hasn’t happened yet), but has proven to have the technical ability to ensure a smooth transition of power until the main parliament is erected. During the transition period, political parties start operating freely in Iran and can advertise their philosophy, politics and objectives in order to attract members and voters.
New Government: When the political parties have had sufficient time to freely advertise their policies and become able to establish a functional and efficient parliamentary system, the interim government organizes a free and fair election, monitored by all parties, many institutions and international organizations. From then on, the true representatives of the people will set out to develop the political foundations of the next government.

The individual steps for each phase can only be clearly designed and described, when a detailed strategy has been developed by the Democratic Iranian Parliament in Exile (PiE) and a roadmap has been created. For now, we must focus on the immediate next steps.

Immediate next Steps

No opposition leader or group has gained the trust and cooperation of millions of Iranians so far. The only way we can work towards gaining their support is to establish a broad coalition from all political groups. In this sense, the leadership won’t be a single person or group, but rather the PiE as a whole. People need not necessarily trust every single member of the PiE. They need not identify with all of them. It is sufficient if there is a person or a faction in the parliament that represents their demands.

Time-wise, it would be efficient, if the largest political groups work together and establish the necessary infrastructures for developing the PiE. Another possible option for tackling the complexity of establishing a PiE is to start with specific regional parliaments in exile (e.g. in the EU). There are four major benefits to this concept.

To develop each regional PiE, the organizing groups can use the regional laws. Voting laws in Germany are different from those in France, but there are a lot of shared system throughout Europe. But the US is markedly different. By adopting the voting laws of the host region, it is on one hand easier to use the available expertise of Iranian and non-Iranian experts, who understand those systems. On the other hand, Iranians living in that region know and understand the local voting system.
A region-specific PiE offers the advantage of directly entering negotiations with the political system of the host region. If for example a world-wide PiE is set up, the government of Germany might tell it to go talk with the US. Or Italy might say that Germany has a larger economy in Europe and the PiE should first talk to them. The UK might say that it is not a part of the EU, etc. By having regional PiEs, Iranian groups can focus their efforts on the host systems, with which they generally have much stronger ties compared to other governments. This also avoids problems of favoritism and claims of unfair representation.
The third benefit is that having several instances of regional PiEs compared to just one international PiE allows for a better regulation of the world-wide PiE and enhances both its abilities and resources, partially by acting as a dynamic source of support and constructive criticism. This will also be a very good training about democratic systems for the leaders.
Finally, it is easier to attract the cooperation of Iranians living in a specific region, if they know the resources they invest are being used by groups in that region, meaning they can easily get in touch with these groups and even be personally involved as volunteers or supporters. They wouldn’t be supporting an abstract and vague concept of an international organization they cannot personally approach. Regional PiEs would also have access to volunteers in each region, which would help with gathering resources.

In this case voting would be limited to Iranians living in a specific region and hence exclude Iranians elsewhere. This doesn’t reduce the legitimacy of the regional PiEs, as they would have no claim on representing all Iranians but only representing the demands and interests of Iranians in that nation. Of course, through contact with friends and family, this would mirror the core demands of Iranians inside Iran as well. Furthermore, some of the most important demands of Iranians living inside Iran are not hard to discern. Lack of drinkable water, high inflation, large unemployment rates, unfair treatment of women, etc. are all social, economic and political issues that we know exist. The regional PiEs can start working on these issues, even if people from inside Iran can’t vote on them yet. At the same time, the experience of the regional PiEs would help enhance the quality of the world-wide PiE. The members of the world wide PiE would then be delegates from regional PiEs, but also members directly voted by Iranians in regions without a PiE, most importantly Iran.

The other articles of this collection:

1. Institutional Democracy for Developing Iran

2. The Structure of the IR Regime

3. Conditions for Regime Change

4. Dissolving the Regime

6. The Missing Link — A Consolidated Leadership

7. Developing Leadership through a Parliament in Exile

8. Legitimacy

9. The Roots of Laws in Modern Societies

References

Jerzy Wiatr (2019), New Authoritarianism: Challenges to Democracy in the 21st century, READ HERE

Said Amir Arjomand (2019), Revolution: Structure and Meaning in World History, LINK