Based on over 250 years of experience with modern democracy and especially over 70 years of detailed studies, there is a vast body of knowledge about major sociopolitical changes that can develop a nation and enhance the quality of life for its population. Kavian has used these insights to develop a general strategy for Iran's transition to democracy.
Introduction
All indications show that Iranians are unsatisfied with the political rule of the Islamic Republic regime (IR regime) and, if possible and without loss of life, livelihood and property, would opt for a democratic political system that respects human rights. Of course, the IR regime is not willing to let go of the power it has. We are hence faced with the important question “how can a population that is being ruled by a semi-totalitarian, theocratic dictatorship, produce a positive change in direction of a democracy?”
Each opposition group of course claims that they have the right answer. And yet, after over 40 years, none of them has been able to achieve a meaningful change. Execution or assassination of important opposition figures, imprisonment of critics and brutal crackdown on critical organizations and groups continue as before. Ruling a populous, large country is not a simple task. In effect governing is a science and changing that ruling system also requires a science on its own. The latter is called the science of transition to democracy. If an Iranian opposition group hopes to achieve its goals and produce a meaningful, positive change, it must learn from the wealth of knowledge and experience offered by this branch.
Part 1: Institutional Democracy for Developing Iran
The first part explains shortly what that the lack of political, social and economic development in Iran has led to widespread injustice and that our overarching approach must be an attempt to provide more freedoms to Iranians, while ensuring justice for all. It is also argued that an institutional, liberal democracy is the best know political system for achieving this objective.
Part 2: The Structure of the Islamic Republic Regime
That the IR regime is neither a republic, nor Islamic (in the moral sense) is abundantly clear. Hence, in this article we describe the economic, the political and the religious nature of the IR regime. We show that this regime is an oil-rentier with an oil-mafia at its core, designed to extract as much wealth for its elites as possible, no matter the cost for the population. We also show why a totalitarian type of dictatorship is best suited for operating a vast mafia enterprise. And we touch on the fact that the best way to give a sense of 'legitimacy' to this regime is by extensive religious propaganda.
Part 3: Conditions for Regime Change
In this article we first argue that the hard core of power in the IR regime not only has no capacity or ability to reform itself internally, it has no interest either. Then we focus on the conditions that need to exist or be organized in order to enable a meaningful change in the whole of the political system, most importantly, in changing the constitution. It becomes partially visible here, which areas the opposition must focus on.
Part 4: Dissolving the IR Regime
Here, it is explained how the so-called 'fundamental, structural changes' can result in dissolving the regime without the use of violence and also without causing any chaos and disruption of civil services (water, power, food) and also avoid a coup d'etat. The tasks of an opposition leadership are also described shortly.
Part 5: The Transition Process
This article tries to clarify certain misconceptions about what we consider to be a regim change. It explains that such a change, while being major and large-scale, is not necessarily a rapid one. More importantly, for it to be successful, the opposition requires careful planning and the capacity to manage the civil services for years.
Part 6: The Missing Link — A Consolidated Leadership
In the articles 3 to 5 it becomes ever more clear that the main missing ingredient among the opposition, is a consolidated leadership. The features and functions of such a leadership are described here as well as the methods how to develop a leadership.
Part 7: Developing Leadership through a Parliament in Exile
This article builds upon the previous one to describe in full detail, why is a Parliament in Exile the best method for establishing and developing a consolidated leadership. The main aspects, the different parts and the important steps for achieving this objective are also described.
To obtian political power and be able to manage the government, the group of people who hope to obtain the positions of power, require legitimacy. Here the root of legitimacy in modern political systems is described.
Part 9: The Roots of Laws in Modern Societies
Ultimately, the major defects of the IR regime can all be traced back to the dysfunctional laws and especially the current Iranian constitution, which allows both for severe injustice and for the leader of the regime to become a dictator. We consider in this article how the ideas behind laws should be considered and discussed so that we can have laws, which benefit the whole of the society.
